Iran’s Internal Turmoil and U.S. Hostility: A Grave Global Challenge
– Lalit Gargg–
The recurring turbulence in Iran is not merely the outcome of a single incident, a solitary policy decision, or the anger of one generation. Rather, it is the culmination of a historical, ideological, and geopolitical structure that has shaped the country since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. At a time when images of street protests, waves of outrage on social media, and speculation by Western analysts about regime change are intensifying, it becomes essential to understand that Iran’s crisis is not a matter of ordinary domestic unrest. It is deeply intertwined with the global balance of power. Alongside internal instability, Iran’s growing confrontation with the United States is creating conditions that risk war and widespread global imbalance.
The escalating tension between Iran and the United States is not merely a bilateral dispute; its repercussions can be felt across the world. This confrontation heightens the risk of war in West Asia, with direct consequences for global energy supplies and oil prices. Any instability in the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt the arteries of international trade, triggering inflation and the threat of economic slowdown worldwide. Moreover, such a conflict could draw regional states into war, directly or indirectly, intensifying refugee crises, terrorism, and sectarian tensions. If major powers come into open confrontation, global politics will become even more polarized, international cooperation will weaken, and an atmosphere of distrust and military rivalry will replace efforts toward peace—ultimately exacting a heavy price from humanity as a whole.
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 did not merely remove Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi from power and install a new government; it created an ideological–political structure in which religion, politics, and the security apparatus became inseparably intertwined. Under the doctrine of Velayat-e-Faqih, ultimate political authority was vested in the supreme religious leadership. To safeguard and expand this system, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was established. Over time, it evolved into not just a military force but a central pillar of economic, political, and ideological power. This is why Iran’s system cannot be understood simply as a government or regime; it is a comprehensive structure, one that cannot be dismantled by protests alone.
Over the past four decades, Iran has witnessed several major popular movements—the Green Movement of 2009, the wave of economic discontent in 2017–18, the violent protests against fuel price hikes in 2019, and the voices raised for social freedoms in 2022. Each time, it was widely believed that the system might finally falter. Yet each time, the same power structure and balance endured. The primary reason is that in Iran, the security apparatus is not separate from the state; it is an extension of the state itself. During the Arab Spring, armies in countries such as Egypt or Turkey ultimately chose to preserve the nation-state. In Iran, however, the IRGC sees itself as the guardian of the revolution and the Islamic Republic, not merely as a force tasked with defending borders.
Nevertheless, it would be wrong to assume that Iran’s system is under no pressure. In fact, the pressure today is deeper and more complex than ever before. One of the most significant factors is generational change. A large segment of Iran’s population is young—people who neither witnessed the 1979 revolution nor share an emotional attachment to it. For them, the revolution is not a living memory but a chapter in history books. Their aspirations are shaped by the internet, global culture, education, employment opportunities, and personal freedoms. When these aspirations collide with a rigid socio-political system, discontent inevitably arises.
This discontent has been further sharpened by decades of U.S. and Western sanctions. These sanctions have severely damaged Iran’s economy: oil exports have been curtailed, foreign investment has dried up, the currency has weakened, and inflation has broken the back of ordinary citizens. Development and modernization have slowed, deepening anxiety about the future—particularly among the urban middle class and the youth. Increasingly, many Iranians are questioning whether the burden of endless hostility with the United States and Israel must continue to fall on their shoulders. Gradually, what was once framed as ideological confrontation rooted in national pride is now being perceived as a heavy social and economic burden.
The growing tension between Iran and the United States makes this entire situation even more dangerous. Orders by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose additional tariffs on countries trading with Iran, along with signals of possible military intervention, have once again pushed West Asia to the brink of war. Iran today faces perhaps the most severe external pressure it has experienced since 1979. This confrontation is no longer just a conflict between two nations; it has become a geopolitical contest in which major powers seek to advance their own strategic interests.
There is a widespread assumption that external intervention could bring about regime change in Iran. History, however, suggests the opposite. Foreign interference has consistently produced counterproductive outcomes in Iran. From the overthrow of Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953 to the present day, the narrative of “foreign conspiracy” has only strengthened Iranian nationalism. Movements perceived as receiving external support have failed to secure broad and lasting popular legitimacy. This is one reason why opposition leadership—often based abroad—has not emerged as a credible alternative within Iran.
Moreover, Iran is not Venezuela. It is a large, organized, and strategically crucial country with influence extending into Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Any form of military intervention could set the entire West Asian region ablaze. Israel, the Gulf states, the United States, and European powers would all be affected. China and Russia, too, do not desire an unstable Iran, as such instability would run counter to their regional and global interests. This multipolar balance effectively provides Iran’s system with an indirect protective shield.
Within Iran, public anger is no longer confined to economic mismanagement or corruption. A growing segment of society believes that the regime’s priorities have become detached from the everyday needs of ordinary people. When citizens are demanding food security, employment, and a dignified life, ideological battles against external enemies and strident anti-Israel rhetoric appear hollow. Many Iranians feel that such policies have pushed the country into international isolation and economic ruin.
If attempts are made to engineer regime change in Iran through external support, the consequences will not be limited to Iran alone. The balance of power in the Middle East could be severely destabilized. Shia–Sunni tensions, the Iran–Israel conflict, and global energy markets would all be profoundly affected. For India, this scenario would pose particular challenges. India has long-standing historical, cultural, and strategic ties with Iran—from the Chabahar port to energy security. In such circumstances, India will need to exercise extreme caution in maintaining its strategic balance, ensuring that it protects its national interests rather than becoming a pawn of any single geopolitical bloc.
Ultimately, Iran’s current turbulence indicates that pressure on the system is real, but predictions of its imminent collapse often prove premature. This struggle is not merely about regime change; it is a deeper contest over identity, ideological direction, and visions of the future. Iran’s destiny is unlikely to be reshaped either by a sudden revolution or by repression alone. Instead, it will unfold through a long, complex process fraught with internal contradictions—one whose outcomes will shape not only Iran’s future, but the course of global politics itself.
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