The Global Impact of the Ongoing War Between the US, Israel, and Iran – Dr. Shrinivas Mahawar

Under the aegis of the 'Janmat Manch' (Public Opinion Forum), a seminar was organized on the topic: "The Global Impact of the Ongoing War Between the US, Israel, and Iran." Speaking on this occasion, Dr. Shrinivas Mahawar stated:
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel initiated a war by launching joint airstrikes against Iran's nuclear and military installations. In this conflict, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed, and with Iranian bases sustaining heavy damage, tensions in the Middle East have reached a critical peak. This war has resulted in disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a surge in global oil prices, and a death toll running into the thousands thus far. Among the casualties, the majority are Iranian nationals.
Shirish Nath Mathur, Secretary of the Janmat Manch, explained that on February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran under the codename 'Operation Roaring Lion.' The triggers for this action included years of escalating tensions, the advancement of Iran's nuclear program following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA), and attacks on US bases in the region by Iran-backed groups.
Consequently, the US and Israel targeted Iran's nuclear and missile programs. In retaliation, Iran launched counter-attacks using missiles and drones. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with several other senior officials, perished in these retaliatory strikes.
The need of the hour is to recognize that any war—regardless of its nature—has a direct impact on the nation's commerce and trade, which, in turn, directly affects the daily lives and economic well-being of ordinary citizens. We must strive to prevent the emergence of war-like situations, ensuring instead that public life continues to proceed normally.
Highlighting the major impacts of the war, Dr. Priyadarshi Ojha, Joint Secretary of the forum, noted:
• Global Energy Crisis: Iran has issued a warning that it may block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's crude oil passes. This move is expected to trigger a massive surge in global oil prices.
• Regional Instability: The conflict has resulted in widespread devastation across Lebanon and Iran. Travelers remain stranded in the Middle East due to the ongoing conflict, and there is a looming threat of the war escalating further.
• Economic and Political Impact: Under U.S. leadership, stringent sanctions have been imposed on Iran. This is having a devastating effect on Iran's already fragile economy, leading to shortages of essential medicines and food supplies.
Today, it is imperative to recognize that any war—regardless of its nature—directly impacts a nation's commerce and trade, thereby having a direct bearing on the daily lives and economic well-being of its ordinary citizens. We must strive to prevent the emergence of war-like situations and ensure that public life continues to function normally.

Vinod Kumar Chaudhary, Assistant Secretary of the forum, stated that this conflict is widely perceived as a direct consequence of the U.S. policy of "Maximum Pressure"—a strategy initiated following the failure of previous diplomatic efforts. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East (involving Israel, Iran, and Hamas) is exerting a profoundly negative influence on both the global economy and India. This situation is driving up crude oil prices, thereby heightening the risk of inflation; furthermore, disruptions to maritime trade routes are causing shipping costs to soar, which could ultimately have an adverse impact on India's GDP.
Highlighting the major impacts of the war, Dr. Kunal Ameta noted that India imports nearly all of its required oil; consequently, the surge in oil prices triggered by the conflict is driving up the costs of fuel, transportation, and everyday commodities.
Disruption to Trade: Due to heightened tensions near the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, shipping vessels are compelled to take longer, alternative routes. This has resulted in increased freight costs and significant disruptions to global supply chains. Safety of Indians: A crisis regarding both safety and employment has emerged for the approximately 9 million Indians currently working in the Gulf nations. Economic Uncertainty: If this conflict were to drag on for an extended period, it could potentially slow down the pace of global economic growth and exacerbate trade deficits. Humanitarian Crisis: The war is claiming innocent lives, destroying infrastructure, and creating an atmosphere of uncertainty and psychological trauma for future generations.
Vishal Mathur, the forum's Treasurer, noted that this war is causing environmental pollution. It is also having an adverse impact on wildlife, livestock, and birds.
In summary, this war has emerged as a major challenge for India from the perspective of energy security and economic stability.
Dr. Poonam Pathak, a member of the forum, stated that the various ongoing conflicts (such as the Ukraine-Russia war and tensions in the Middle East/Iran-Israel) are yielding extremely destructive and far-reaching consequences on a global scale. By the beginning of 2026, these conflicts have brought the global economy to a "stormy" crossroads.
The primary global consequences are as follows:
1. Energy Crisis and Surge in Oil Prices
• The ongoing conflict in the Middle East—specifically the tensions involving Iran, the US, and Israel—has disrupted supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This is being regarded as the most significant energy supply crisis since the 1970s.
• Apprehensions have been raised that Brent crude oil prices could reach $100–$120 per barrel, leading to rising fuel prices across the globe.
2. Global Inflation and Economic Recession
• The war has disrupted supply chains, resulting in increased costs for raw materials and transportation. The OECD has warned that global GDP growth forecasts may be downgraded as a result of the war.
• Rising energy and food prices are fueling inflation worldwide, placing the heaviest burden on developing economies.
3. Food Security Crisis
• The Ukraine-Russia war has disrupted the supply of grains (such as wheat and maize). Since these two countries are major global grain exporters, disruptions in supply are causing food grain prices to rise.